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To view this page ensure that Adobe Flash Player version 9.0.124 or greater is installed. The market’s return to growth in 2004—to 562 jets worth $8.7 billion—val-idates the idea that the new, large, post-1995 business jet market is here to stay. The level of its further growth over the next few years, and the question of when it will return to its 2001 peak level, is de-batable. But the market’s free-fall is over. The idea that this impressive transforma-tion of a key aviation segment was a mere bubble is now dead. How strong a recovery? Looking ahead, one problem is that the leading indicators of market recovery look uncertain at best. Used aircraft availability and pricing have made only modest prog-ress since late 2001. The average asking price of almost every class of aircraft re-mains stubbornly below the level of the market peak, in late 2000. However, used jet availability does show some signs of hope. According to AMSTAT (Aviation Market Statistics), in-ventory levels fell by over 1.1% between December 2004 and March. This inven-tory of about 1,800 planes now consti-tutes just over 13% of the fleet, down from a peak of 16% in 2002 (a normal, healthy market typically exhibits availability rates in the 10% range). Medium jets have shown a particularly encouraging drop in availability, falling by 5.9% between mid-January and late February. The most important leading indicator, of course, is the broader economy. While the correlation is far from perfect, business jet demand tends to rise and fall along with corporate profits and the Dow Jones industrial average. The economy can be described as reasonably sound right now, but there are too many doubts about the next few years to reliably indicate a con-tinued robust outlook, with specific con-cerns focused on energy prices, currency weakness, and trade and budget deficits. Another concern about the market re-covery revolves around tax incentives that might have inflated demand in 2004. Ear-lier that year, Congress passed an exten-sion allowing for another year’s bonus de-preciation on new fixed-asset purchases. This allows a first-year federal tax deduc-tion of 50% of an aircraft’s purchase, on top of other available depreciation. It ap-plies to any aircraft purchased by a U.S. taxpayer in 2004 and entering service any time before December 31 of this year. As with easy aircraft finance terms and price reductions, favorable tax rule changes like this provide a one-time mar-ket boost (or, in the case of the 2004 leg-islation, extend a one-time market boost for another year). They also convince air-craft customers to make planned future purchases more immediately, thereby ef-fectively stealing demand from the future. According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, aircraft pur-chaser surveys indicate “that bonus de-preciation has been directly responsible for generating over $2 billion worth of new airplane orders since its enactment last May [2004].” While this is a strong boost for an industry that had been under considerable pressure, it also casts doubt on what the current recovery would look like if the bonus depreciation act had not pulled this demand forward. It also raises questions about how much growth will be left in the future when the bonus de-preciation effect ends. 中国公务机网 www.gongwuji.com 公务机翻译 www.aviation.cn 本文链接地址：Business jet free-fall ends(2) |
