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Business jet free-fall ends

时间:2011-12-01 09:35来源:蓝天飞行翻译 作者:公务机

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Business jet free-fall ends

After tremendous growth in the 1990s, the business jet market stalled in the early years of this decade, leading to fears of per-manent market deflation. Last year, how-ever, saw a hopeful recovery, with double-digit growth in the value of deliveries over 2003. While highly reassuring, the angle of this upturn may prove disappointing.
Boom or bubble? The significance of last year’s business jet market growth must be understood in its historical context. In the second half of the 1990s, after 30 years of sluggishness, a mature market almost quadrupled in size. Prior to 1995, the business jet mar-ket had never been worth more than $3.5 billion annually, in today’s dollars. The market began to grow that year, and by 1997 it had risen to $6.7 billion. In 1999, manufacturers delivered 653 jets worth $10.5 billion, and the market continued to grow, rising to 726 planes worth $11.4 billion in 2000.
If the new dedicated business jetliners are included (Airbus’s A319CJ and Boe-ing’s 737 BBJ), the market in 2001 (the peak year of the boom) was worth $12.6 billion. Of the world total of 13,913 busi-ness jets delivered during the market’s 41-year history, about 40%, or 5,470 planes, were delivered in the last 10 years (by Teal Group’s counting).
Interestingly, thanks to this growth, the market for business jets came to be worth more than the world combat aircraft market. This happened for the first time in the history of aviation in 1999, when the fighter market fell to $10.3 billion, just below the $10.5-billion business jet market. Predictably, this situation was re-versed in 2003, when the world’s fighter manufacturers delivered 227 planes worth $10.4 billion. The 1990s were a great com-bination of peace and wealth.
Inevitably, too, the business jet mar-ket stumbled, deflating to 661 jets worth $9.4 billion in 2002, and 492 jets worth $7.2 billion in 2003. Since there had been no precedent for the growth experienced in the 1990s (in this market or almost any other mature industrial market), there was no way to predict what the floor would be. Would the low point be about 50% of the peak market point (typical of any cyclical market for capital-intensive goods), or was the industry headed back to pre-1995 levels? Was all that spectacular growth just a bubble?
This fear was rooted in the other ma-


And as with these companies, there may have been some serious overinvest-ment going on. Fractional ownership cer-tainly provided a productive use of busi-ness jets, and did manage to bring many new customers to business aviation, help-ing to grow demand. But very little, if any, profits were generated. Again, as with the dot-com and telecom companies, rich in-vestors were helping to subsidize demand.
Fears like these had some validity. But at the end of the day the majority of business jets, unlike many communica-tions and information technology invest-ments, were doing productive work. De-spite a relatively high inventory of jets available for sale, most business aircraft are being put to productive use.
 
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