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ENGINE TYPE ■ Jet ■ Piston ■ Turboprop
Figure 30.
Airport Pairs
Median Distance
Mean Distance
(km)
(km)
Summary of traffic by
distance and type.
Business Jet 73045 601.5 1100.8 Piston 14499 196.6 284.0 Turboprop 36401 332.5 420.9
Other 108535 1024.3 1553.9 Scheduled 29614 672.5 1423.3
By comparing data from seven published forecasts, we estimate that the European fleet of business aircraft will grow by 4% (±2%) per year over the next ten years, adding around 1000 aircraft to the existing 2000. It is the jet fleet that will increase fastest, at 6.5% (±2.5%) per year giving around 1100 extra flights/day by 2015. This adds 0.4% (points) per year to total flight movement growth. The high-growth case also looks possible, based on manufacturers’ expectations, and this would add nearly 1800 extra flights/day by 2015, adding 0.7% points/year to total growth. This is a significant contribution given a current medium-term forecast for all traffic of around 3.3% growth/year, in which this business aviation growth is probably under-represented.
Forecasts for business aviation all predict growth in new jet sales over the next decade, but disagree as to the extent of the growth. Worldwide forecasts for total deliveries of new jets range from Walsh Aviation’s low projection of 636 jets per year, to Pratt & Whitney’s 1,220 per year. With 10-year replacement rates expected at 25-33%, and a European share of 12-15%, Europe could see a total jet fleet of between 1,600 and 2,600 aircraft by 2015 (up from a base of 1,090 in 2005).
Figure 31. Forecasted Business Jet Aircraft Deliveries 7
Worldwide Forecasted Forecast Period Yearly Deliveries Total Value Replacement Europe % of
Deliveries billions US$ Rate for Period New Deliveries
Pratt & Whitney 12,200 2004 – 2013 1,220
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本文链接地址：Getting to the Point Business Aviation in Europe(28)
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