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Getting to the Point Business Aviation in Europe(32)

时间:2011-11-24 11:16来源:蓝天飞行翻译 作者:公务机

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15 “The VLJs Will no Doubt Be Popular, but Don’t Count Turboprop Singles Out Yet,” Aviation International News, 29 June 2005.

For Europe, business turboprop deliveries have averaged around 20 air-craft a year since 200016. An aging fleet (over 40% of the turboprop fleet is 25 years or older) implies that many of the turboprop purchases have been for replacement, but we do expect a small fleet increase in the next few years, as the Eastern European fleet expands and as jet-like performance becomes available, notably with the Piaggio Avanti. In total, we predict a modest 15% increase in European turboprop fleet size over the ten years, from a base of 567 aircraft in 2005, to 650 tur-boprop aircraft in 201417 .
With a slight decrease in piston aircraft, we expect to see the total busi-ness fleet registered in Europe (jets, turboprops and piston) to increase to about 3,000 aircraft, up from the 2,000 in service in 2005.
At current rates of flying, this means a further 1100 flights/day, most-ly by jets. In the high growth case, which is quite achievable on man-ufacturers’ expectations of VLJ deliveries, there would be nearly 1800 more flights/day by 2015. This growth is under-represented in the baseline EUROCONTROL medium-term forecast – and would make the high-growth scenario for all flights from the medium-term forecast more likely.

H25B is the third busiest business aircraft type (here Hawker 850XP).
16 JP Airline-Fleets International 2005/2006. 17 Ibid.


On two narrow but important measurements of safety, business aviation is improving. With poor data on numbers of passengers, it is difficult to make a precise comparison between business aviation and other modes of transport. However, the fatality rates appear higher than those for scheduled flights, but similar to travelling the equivalent distance by motorway in the case of turboprops, and similar to rail in the case of jet flights.
According to the data in a five year study of business aviation safety, a total of 405 accidents were reported worldwide from 1998-200218. The study examined business turbine powered aeroplanes, and found that 72% of the accidents were related to turboprop aircraft, while 28% took place with jets. The accident rates improved between 1999 and 2002, with jets safer than turboprops in terms of rates as well as in absolute terms.
 
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