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Getting to the Point Business Aviation in Europe(30)

时间:2011-11-24 11:16来源:蓝天飞行翻译 作者:公务机

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Fractional Ownership: Fractional fleets are growing in Europe and expected to continue to do so. Ownership at the levels seen in North America is unlikely to occur, however, due to legislative and tax dif-ferences between these regions. Instead, greater importance is given to card programmes, where clients buy flight hours instead of actu-al shares in an aircraft. At present, fractionals account for 10-15% of the global business jet production and this percentage is expected by some forecasters to increase to between 20-30%11 over the next ten years, while others expect it to remain in the 10-15% range12, which may be more appropriate for Europe.

 

Economic growth: World economic growth is expected to continue to follow current positive trends.

 

Emerging international markets: Since 2003 new business jets deliv-ered outside of the U.S. have increased from 22% of the total to approximately 27%13. In the long term, economic growth expecta-tions for countries like China, Russia and India will account for much of the growth. Growth in Russia in particular will affect Europe as their fleets travel to and from other European destinations.


9 AMSTAT Corp.; Rolls Royce 2005 Forecast 10 Teal Group Forecast, June 2005
11 Teal Group Forecast; Honeywell Business Aviation Outlook 2005 12 Embraer. 13 Airclaims, Rolls Royce 2005 Forecast

By looking across the forecasts provided by the various companies, we have estimated that there will be in the range of 1,600-2,600 jet aircraft in service in Europe, with a median projection of around 2,100. This is up from the 1,090 in service in 2004, and means that the business jet fleet will nearly double in ten years (see Figure 32). There is a qualita-tive change in deliveries in this forecast: until last year 60-80 addition-al jets per year (net of retirements) was a good year. In the base case a rate of 90-100 is sustained, and in the high case nearly 150 deliveries/year. So the high case given here would encompass Eclipse’s prediction of 50 deliveries/year for Europe.
 
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