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Figure 32. Forecast Scenarios for Europe 2006-2015
Jet Total European Business Fleet 2015
Scenario Worldwide Yearly Europe % of European Deliveries Yearly Jet Turboprop Piston
Deliveries New Deliveries Over Ten years Replacement rate
High Growth 1,220 15% 1,830 1.7% 2,620 700 400
Central Forecast 928 13.5% 1,253 2.3% 2,060 650 300
Low Growth 636 12% 763 2.9% 1,630 600 250
Source: Published forecasts and ALG analysis
Forecast International expects the civil turboprop market to remain stable over the next ten years, with yearly deliveries increasing by around 10% until 200814. They see the majority of this growth in sin-gle-engine turboprops, which are more likely to compete with VLJs on price and operating costs, and are seen as a logical step up for piston aircraft owners. While growth is not expected in twin engine turbo-props, their sales will remain stable as many corporate flight depart-ments insist on the redundancy of two engines.
Many business aviation users may consider migrating to VLJs over the long term, but long waiting lists preclude immediate deliveries. Some of these customers will seek a turboprop solution in the shorter term. After 2008, turboprop deliveries are expected to slow, as the availabili-ty of VLJs increases. A market for turboprops will still remain after the cost efficient jets arrive, most notably for use at high altitudes and in rural areas that have airfields with short runways15. In addition, turbo-prop performance over short distances is similar to that of a jet aircraft; as controls in congested airport areas prohibit the realisation of full jet speeds, and short distances discourage climbing to high flight levels.
14 Forecast International Press Releases, 7 October 2003, 21 October 2004.
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本文链接地址：Getting to the Point Business Aviation in Europe(31)
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