飞行翻译_公务机_公务航空_Business Jet_Business Aviation

Source: Company published forecasts
Factors that were cited as contributing to the forecasted figures are:

Order intakes: The high number of fixed orders reported by manu-facturers. A total of 800 jets were ordered worldwide in 2004 and an increase of 11% has been seen as of October 20058 .

Growth trend: The accelerated rate of orders seen in 2004 is contin-uing.

7  Honeywell, “Business Aviation Outlook,” presented at NBAA 2005, Orlando, November 2005; Teal Group, “Business Jet Market Overview,” by Richard Aboulafia (In World Aircraft Sales Magazine, June and July 2005); Forecast International Press Releases, 7 October 2003, 21 October 2004; Walsh Aviation, “Business Jet Aircraft Market Outlook and Forecast,” at SpeedNews 19th Annual Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference, March 2005; Rolls-Royce, “Business Jet Review and Forecast,” presented at NBAA 2005, Orlando, November 2005.
8  Honeywell Business Aviation Outlook 2005
36

Used aircraft inventory decline: The inventory of previously-owned aircraft is declining, from a peak of 16% in 2001 down to 13% in January 20059 .

New products: All forecasts take into account new products, but these expectations differ for very light jets. Collectively the VLJ man-ufacturers predict annual production of 1,000 jets. Some industry analysts view this as optimistic, as the number exceeds current total annual jet sales for all types of business jets. Rolls Royce estimates that one-third of the forecasted business jet deliveries will be VLJs. Honeywell expects a demand for 4,500-5,500 VLJs over the next ten years for private owners (corporate and individuals). Embraer expects 2,500-3,000 VLJs worldwide for air taxi services (2006-2015). There is a great deal of interest in VLJs from other aviation sectors, such as logistics, training or other aerial work. This interest is includ-ed in the airframe manufacturers’ sales expectations, upon which the engine manufacturers base their forecasts. For the more business aviation focused Teal Group forecast, VLJ expectations are not as high. The Teal Group declares itself “taxi agnostic”, assigning VLJs less than 20% of their total forecasted figures10 .
　
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